@Sjors Everything happens in order, there are consecutively message ids. Even without rekeying there is no way to make this approach work for UDP.
You need a very different design for that
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Pieter: so if one message doesn't make it across, the counters would be out of sync and the connection is dropped? But that can never happen, because TCP guarantees the correct order and presumably would drop the connection if it can't?
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TCP will just retransmit in that case
from the application's point of view, TCP is a bidirectional, reliable, stream of bytes
nothing can get dropped
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